Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble

Kontis V,  Bennett JE et Al; The Lancet Online First,  21 February 2017

An article has been published in the Lancet ‘ Future life expectancy in 35 industrialised countries: projections with a Bayesian model ensemble’.

Life expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries with a probability of at least 65% for women and 85% for men.

Image caption: http://thelancet.com

The researchers conclude that the health-care needs of these people go beyond simply increasing the number of facilities and personnel, itself a challenge in the current era of austerity, and should involve considerations about how and where care is delivered including more integrated care in the community setting or even at home. At the same time, healthy ageing through the life course can prevent or delay the chronic conditions that affect older people; assistive technologies that compensate for loss of sensory and motor abilities, and appropriate changes to the built environment and transportation services can support independent living and mobility.

Social security and pensions will face additional payouts with extended longevity, which will further stress them unless work and retirement practices change, for example through gradual transition to retirement or later retirement age. Although rising life expectancy necessitates policies that can support healthy ageing, reframing of education–work–retirement practices, and investment in health and social care, our projections show the continued success of extending longevity.

Read the full text of the article here


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